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  • POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE

    2020 U.S. Election Tracker: Morning Consult's Final Results Before Election Day

    Morning Consult is conducting over 4,000 daily surveys with likely voters on the presidential election, congressional elections, candidate favorability, and more. This page will feature the latest updates to that data. The most recent national data is based on surveys conducted Oct. 29-31 among 14,663 likely voters, and the latest state-level data is based on surveys conducted Oct. 22-31, with between 727-4,451 likely voters per state.?

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    THE LATEST: NOV. 2, 2020

    Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 8 percentage points while Democrats have a 7-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot.

    TOPLINE FIGURES

    National presidential head-to-head: Biden 51.9%, Trump 43.9% (Biden +8)

    State-level presidential head-to-head:

    • Biden leads: CO, FL, MI, MN, PA, WI
    • Trump leads: IN, MO, SC
    • Within the margin of error: AZ, GA, NC, OH, TX

    National presidential favorability (net): Biden +6, Trump -11

    Generic congressional ballot: Democrats 50.0%, Republicans 42.7% (Dems +7)

    Senate elections:

    • Democrat leads: CO, MI, NC
    • Republican leads: AL, KY, TX
    • Within the margin of error: AZ, GA, SC

    RECENT INSIGHTS

    2020 looks very different from 2016, final pre-election poll shows: Four years after Democrats found themselves locked out of Washington’s levers of government, a comparison of 2016 exit data and the latest polling shows their improved fortunes are largely down to Biden’s appeal among older and white voters, many of whom were repelled by Clinton. Read the story.

    Trump and Biden look set to split the few remaining undecided voters of 2020: Only 3 percent of likely voters say they don’t know who they’re backing in the presidential contest.?When asked which way they were leaning, 30 percent said Biden and 28 percent said Trump, but the lion’s share (43 percent) of undecideds said they were more likely to vote for someone else altogether. Read the story.

    Most voters who went third party in 2016 are backing Biden over Trump this year: Daily tracking of likely voters conducted Oct. 16-18 found 53 percent of likely voters who opted for someone other than a major-party nominee in 2016 said they’re backing Biden in this year’s election, while 21 percent said they’re supporting Trump. Another 14 percent said they would vote for a third-party candidate again, while 12 percent are still undecided. Read the story.

    View Morning Consult’s 2020 Election Guide

    UPDATED: NOV. 2, 2020

    National Presidential Head-to-Head Tracking
    Respondents are asked, "If the November 2020 presidential election were being held today, for whom would you vote?" Each data point reflects a 3-day moving average among around 12,000 likely voters.
    Demographic Breakouts

    UPDATED: NOV. 2, 2020
    State-Level Presidential Head-to-Head Tracking
    Respondents are asked, "If the November 2020 presidential election were being held today, for whom would you vote?"

    UPDATED: NOV. 2, 2020
    Presidential Candidate Favorability Tracking
    Respondents are asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of each candidate. Each data point reflects a 3-day moving average among around 12,000 likely voters.

    UPDATED: NOV. 2, 2020
    Generic Congressional Ballot Tracking
    Respondents are asked, "If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for?" Each data point reflects a 3-day moving average among around 12,000 likely voters.

    UPDATED: NOV. 2, 2020
    Senate Battleground State Tracking
    Respondents are asked, "If the November 2020 U.S. Senate election were being held today, for whom would you vote?"

    Methodology

    The latest national results reflect surveys conducted Oct. 29-31 among 14,663 likely voters. Morning Consult’s reported results reflect data among likely voters based on a 3-day moving average with a margin of error of +/- 1%. Morning Consult conducts daily interviews with a representative sample of around 4,000 likely voters in the United States via stratified sampling based on age, gender, and language (English/Spanish). This daily sample is weighted based on age, education, ethnicity, gender, geographic region, home ownership, marital status and 2016 presidential vote history.

    The latest state-level results reflect surveys conducted with between 727-4,451 likely voters per state from Oct. 22-31. For our state-level polling, weights are applied to each state separately based on age, gender, education, race, home ownership, marital status, population density, presidential vote history and — for a subset of states — race by education as well as an age-by-gender interaction.

    Download the full data set for the latest state-level release.

    Learn more about Political Intelligence?here and more about Morning Consult’s methodologies here.

    POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE

    Morning Consult Political Intelligence

    Morning Consult's newest data intelligence product features daily polling data on on elected officials, critical elections and top issues at the national, state and congressional levels.

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